The TTP Factor in Pakistan’s Post-2021 Afghanistan Policy: Security Dilemma and Cautious Engagement with the Taliban Regime
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.70670/sra.v4i2.2337Keywords:
Tehrik-I-Taliban Pakistan; Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations; Taliban Regime; Security Dilemma; Cautious Engagement; Counterterrorism; Post-2021 AfghanistanAbstract
The Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in August 2021 transformed Pakistan’s western security environment and reopened critical questions about cross-border militancy, border governance, and Islamabad’s long-term Afghanistan policy. While Pakistan initially expected that a Taliban-led government in Kabul would be more responsive to its security concerns, the resurgence of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) soon became a major source of tension between the two sides. This article examines how the TTP has shaped Pakistan’s post-2021 Afghanistan policy and why Islamabad has adopted a strategy of cautious engagement rather than full recognition, complete disengagement, or direct confrontation with the Taliban regime. Using the security dilemma as a theoretical framework, the study argues that Pakistan views the TTP’s operational space in Afghanistan as a direct threat to its internal security, while the Taliban regime often interprets Pakistani pressure, border controls, and coercive measures as hostile actions against Afghan sovereignty. Based on qualitative analysis of official statements, United Nations reports, security assessments, and scholarly literature, the article finds that the TTP has become the central factor complicating Pakistan-Taliban relations. It concludes that sustainable engagement depends on verifiable counterterrorism cooperation, institutionalized border mechanisms, and a calibrated policy that combines diplomacy, pressure, and regional coordination.
References
Abbas, H. (2014). The Taliban revival: Violence and extremism on the Pakistan-Afghanistan frontier. Yale University Press.
Akhtar, S. (2023). Understanding the resurgence of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. Small Wars & Insurgencies.
Amnesty International. (2024). Pakistan: Halt deportations of Afghan refugees. Amnesty International.
Barfield, T. (2010). Afghanistan: A cultural and political history. Princeton University Press.
Booth, K., & Wheeler, N. J. (2008). The security dilemma: Fear, cooperation, and trust in world politics. Palgrave Macmillan.
Bowen, G. A. (2009). Document analysis as a qualitative research method. Qualitative Research Journal, 9(2), 27–40.
Byman, D. (2022). Spreading hate: The global rise of white supremacist terrorism. Oxford University Press.
Coll, S. (2004). Ghost wars: The secret history of the CIA, Afghanistan, and Bin Laden, from the Soviet invasion to September 10, 2001. Penguin Press.
Creswell, J. W., & Poth, C. N. (2018). Qualitative inquiry and research design: Choosing among five approaches (4th ed.). SAGE.
Fair, C. C. (2014). Fighting to the end: The Pakistan Army’s way of war. Oxford University Press.
Fearon, J. D. (1995). Rationalist explanations for war. International Organization, 49(3), 379–414.
George, A. L., & Bennett, A. (2005). Case studies and theory development in the social sciences. MIT Press.
Giustozzi, A. (2019). The Taliban at war: 2001–2018. Oxford University Press.
Giustozzi, A. (2023). Jihadism in Pakistan: Al-Qaeda, Islamic State and the local militants. I.B. Tauris.
Goodson, L. P. (2001). Afghanistan’s endless war: State failure, regional politics, and the rise of the Taliban. University of Washington Press.
Herz, J. H. (1950). Idealist internationalism and the security dilemma. World Politics, 2(2), 157–180.
Human Rights Watch. (2023). Pakistan: Widespread abuses force Afghans to leave. Human Rights Watch.
Hussain, Z. (2023). Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban: From strategic depth to strategic anxiety. Journal of South Asian Studies.
International Crisis Group. (2014). Resetting Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan. International Crisis Group.
International Crisis Group. (2026). Pakistan: Responding to the militant surge on the Afghan border. International Crisis Group.
Jadoon, A. (2021). The evolution and potential resurgence of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan. United States Institute of Peace.
Jadoon, A., & Sayed, A. (2022). The evolution and future of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan. CTC Sentinel.
Jervis, R. (1978). Cooperation under the security dilemma. World Politics, 30(2), 167–214.
Jones, S. G. (2023). The growing terrorism threat in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Kaura, V. (2022). Pakistan’s Taliban dilemma after the fall of Kabul. Observer Research Foundation.
Kaura, V. (2024). Pakistan-Afghanistan relations under the Taliban: Security anxieties and diplomatic limits. India Quarterly.
Kydd, A. H. (2005). Trust and mistrust in international relations. Princeton University Press.
Laruelle, M. (2021). Central Asia’s regional connectivity and Afghanistan. George Washington University.
Malik, A. (2022). Pakistan’s Afghan policy after the Taliban takeover. Strategic Studies.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of Pakistan. (2025). Statement by the spokesperson. Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of Pakistan.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China. (2025). Foreign ministers of China, Afghanistan and Pakistan hold trilateral dialogue. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China.
Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies. (2026). Pakistan security report 2025. Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies.
Pandya, P. (2025). The battle for the borderlands: The Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan challenges the state’s control. ACLED.
Pant, H. V. (2022). India’s Afghanistan policy after the Taliban takeover. Observer Research Foundation.
Powell, R. (2006). War as a commitment problem. International Organization, 60(1), 169–203.
Rana, M. A. (2024). Pakistan’s counterterrorism challenge and the Afghan question. Dawn.
Rashid, A. (2008). Descent into chaos: The United States and the failure of nation building in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia. Viking.
Rubin, B. R. (2002). The fragmentation of Afghanistan. Yale University Press.
Sayed, A., & Hamming, T. R. (2023). The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan after the Taliban’s Afghanistan takeover. CTC Sentinel, 16(5).
Siddique, A. (2023). The Durand Line and Pakistan-Afghanistan border tensions. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
Tang, S. (2009). The security dilemma: A conceptual analysis. Security Studies, 18(3), 587–623.
United Nations Security Council. (2024). Report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team. United Nations.
United Nations Security Council. (2025). Thirty-sixth report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team. United Nations.
United States Institute of Peace. (2024). Senior Study Group on counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan: Final report. United States Institute of Peace.
Weinbaum, M. G. (2021). Pakistan and Afghanistan after the U.S. withdrawal. Middle East Institute.
World Bank. (2024). Afghanistan development update. World Bank.
Yusuf, M. (2022). Pakistan’s borderlands and the challenge of militancy after FATA merger. United States Institute of Peace.
Zahid, F. (2022). Dealing with Afghanistan after the US withdrawal. NUST Journal of International Peace & Stability.
