Can Artificial Intelligence Reduce Project Failure? Examining the Role of AI-Assisted Decision Making, Risk Prediction, and Team Adaptability in Higher Education Projects

Abstract

The rapid advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has significantly transformed project management practices, particularly within knowledge-intensive sectors such as higher education. Despite increasing investments in educational projects, higher education institutions continue to experience high levels of project failure due to poor decision making, inadequate risk management, communication breakdowns, and limited organizational adaptability. This study examines whether AI-assisted decision making can reduce project failure in higher education projects through the mediating roles of risk prediction and team adaptability. Grounded in Socio-Technical Systems Theory and Dynamic Capability Theory, the study proposes that AI-enabled project management systems enhance project success by improving predictive risk assessment, real-time decision quality, and organizational adaptability. A quantitative research design was adopted, and data were collected from academic project managers, faculty coordinators, IT administrators, and university management professionals involved in higher education projects. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was employed for empirical analysis. The findings revealed that AI-assisted decision making significantly reduces project failure (β = -0.438, p < 0.001). Furthermore, risk prediction (β = -0.173, p < 0.001) and team adaptability (β = -0.194, p < 0.001) partially mediated the relationship between AI-assisted decision making and project failure reduction. The model explained 64.3% of the variance in project failure reduction, indicating substantial predictive capability. The findings suggest that AI-driven analytics, predictive monitoring systems, and intelligent decision-support platforms improve project outcomes by enhancing risk visibility, operational responsiveness, and collaborative adaptability within academic project environments. The study contributes to the emerging literature on AI-enabled project management by integrating technological intelligence and organizational adaptability into a unified framework explaining project failure reduction in higher education institutions.