Balancing Giants: Philippines Foreign Policy under Structural Realist Pressure

Abstract

This research paper examines how successive Philippine administrations from 2010 to 2023 employed hedging strategies to navigate the systemic constraints of U.S.-China rivalry while safeguarding autonomy and national interests. In fact, guided by structural realism, this study highlights three distinct approaches: Benigno Aquino III’s legalistic balancing via UNCLOS litigation and alliance reinforcement with the US; Rodrigo Duterte’s hardheaded economic diplomacy with China coupled with selective rendezvous with both powers; and Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s recalibration toward renewed security collaboration while filling economic ties. Further, this research paper employs a qualitative single-case study based solely on secondary sources, including government announcements, legal documents such as the MDT, VFA, EDCA, and the 2016 arbitral ruling, public speeches, and peer-reviewed journals. The findings of this research will underscore that small powers are not passive actors but also strategic agents capable of managing systematic pressure with calculated ambiguity and purpose. Despite deviating policy narratives, Aquino trailed legal-institutional balancing against China, Duterte espoused strategic improbability with pecuniary commitment and economic engagement, and Marcos Jr. recalibrated alignment with the US while sustaining diplomatic outreach to China. These results affirm structural realist prerogatives that smaller states face systemic constraints yet adapt through leadership styles and domestic calculations, enabling nuanced survival strategies within the balance of power. The findings of my research will have important implications for practitioners, policymakers, and academics engaged in the Indo-Pacific.