Determinants of Support for Federalism vs. Centralization: A Survey of Public Opinion in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP)

Abstract

A characteristic of the multi-ethnic democracies is the debate of federalism versus centralization in the discourse of governance. Constitutional provisions in Pakistan are nominal in support of federalism, yet the friction between provincial sovereignty and centralization still influences political rivalry, allocation of resources, and confidence of the electorate. This paper explores the determinants of popular support of publics in support of federal government versus centralized government structures by use of a cross-provincial survey among Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhaw (KP). The study employs a quantitative research design to assess the role of institutional trust, perceived governance performance, ethnic identity, fiscal preferences, and political awareness in shaping the attitudes of the citizens toward state structure, with 714 respondents as a sample. The results show a complex picture: the respondents in KP show more favorability to federalism because of historical needs to have autonomy on the provincial level, but the respondents in Punjab show a relatively higher degree of tolerance to the concept of centralization, which is highly explained by the views on the effectiveness of administration and the unity of the nation. The results of the regression analysis show that institutional trust and perceived provincial performance are the most important predictors of federalist attitudes, whereas security concerns and the expectation of economic performance are significant predictors of centralized authority preferences. The research has theoretical contributions by incorporating the Institutional Theory and the Rational Choice views to support the idea that citizens consider the governance arrangements based on the identity and performance factors. In practical terms, the results indicate the necessity of balanced policies of decentralization that should increase provincial ability without disrupting the national coordination. Finally, the study holds that the founding of sustainable federalism is more reliant not on the design of the constitution but on whether the people believe in the capacity of subnational authorities to provide quality governance.