China’s Expanding Geopolitical Influence and Its Implications for Peace, Security, and Regional Order in East and Central Asia

Abstract

This study examined China’s expanding geopolitical influence and its implications for peace, security, and regional order in East and Central Asia between 2013 and 2024. Using a qualitative multiple case study design, the research analyzed policy documents, institutional frameworks, and security cooperation patterns to assess how China’s economic, institutional, and military engagement reshaped regional dynamics. The findings indicated differentiated subregional outcomes. In Central Asia, economic integration under infrastructure initiatives and institutional participation within China-led organizations reinforced political alignment and contributed to relative regime stability. In contrast, East Asia experienced intensified strategic competition, particularly in maritime domains, where economic interdependence coexisted with balancing behavior and alliance reinforcement. The study demonstrated that China’s geopolitical expansion operated through economic leverage, institutional embedding, and selective security cooperation; however, its effects were contingent upon geographic context, alliance structures, and historical rivalries. The research concluded that China’s rise neither uniformly destabilized nor stabilized the region but instead produced layered and complex transformations within the regional order. Policy recommendations emphasized diversified partnerships, confidence-building mechanisms, and inclusive institutional engagement to sustain regional peace.