US-China Geostrategic Rivalry in the South China Sea: Effects on Maritime Security and Diplomatic Stability in 2025

Abstract

This paper examines the growing strategic rivalry between the United States and China in the South China Sea, a region valued for its shipping routes, fisheries, and potential energy deposits. The study describes how intensified naval, coast guard, and militia activities near disputed islands have increased the frequency of confrontations and raised the risk of accidental clashes. These developments challenge the principle of open navigation and threaten regional trade networks. The analysis also considers the complicated positions of claimant states Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, and China and their efforts to balance relations with both major powers. ASEAN’s attempts to manage disputes and limit external pressures are reviewed as part of the broader diplomatic landscape. The paper argues that reducing tensions requires steady communication, transparency at sea, and stronger multilateral dialogue. It concludes that only a balanced blend of military restraint, economic cooperation, and diplomatic engagement can prevent further instability in the Indo-Pacific.