A Quantitative Comparative Analysis of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Twitter (X) Discourse Against the Pakistani Establishment from the 2018 General Election to 2025.

Abstract

This study conducts a quantitative comparative analysis of Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML N) and Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI) Twitter discourse against the Pakistani establishment between the 2018 general election and 2025. Drawing on tweets from official party and leader accounts, the research measures tweet frequency, sentiment polarity, engagement metrics, and narrative framing. Using interrupted time series (ITS), difference in differences (DiD), and t tests, the study examines how party status (government vs. opposition) shaped digital strategies.
The findings reveal that PTI’s discourse intensified significantly after its removal from government in April 2022, with tweet volume and negativity rising sharply alongside higher engagement rates. PML N, by contrast, moderated its discourse after returning to power, maintaining a more neutral tone and stable engagement. Narrative analysis shows PTI emphasizing victimization and accountability frames, while PML N leaned toward constitutionalism and stability.
This research contributes to scholarship on civil–military relations and digital political communication in South Asia by providing empirical evidence of how parties strategically use social media to contest legitimacy and mobilize supporters. It highlights Twitter’s role as a battleground for political narratives, demonstrating the divergent strategies of populist and pragmatic parties in Pakistan’s evolving democratic landscape.