Geospatial Mapping and Assessment of Urban Flood Risk and Vulnerability in Rawalpindi, Pakistan

Abstract

Frequent and severe urban flooding in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, poses significant risks to both human populations and critical infrastructure, with vulnerability aggravated by rapid urbanization, inadequate drainage, and the compounding effects of climate change. This study assesses the flood vulnerability of Rawalpindi’s urban zones, Rawalpindi Metropolitan, Rawalpindi Cantonment, and Chacklala Cantonment using a Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI), which integrates social, economic, physical (infrastructure), and environmental indicators. Primary and secondary data were collected through household surveys (386 responses from 32 identified vulnerable areas), and focus group discussions with relevant authorities while secondary data were explored from institutional records (WASA, RDA, PMD, Rescue 1122). The stratified probability sampling method ensured representative coverage of at-risk communities, while field surveys captured on-ground realities of exposure, susceptibility, and resilience. The collected data were analyzed with the help of SPSS and applied statistical methods like correlation and regression etc. Vulnerable areas were demarcated using GIS mapping, and the FVI was calculated. The data was normalized, assigned specific weightage to each indicator and impact value of each indicator was calculated. The results indicate moderate to high flood vulnerability across the study area, with the Rawalpindi Metropolitan (RM) exhibiting the highest FVI (0.5), primarily due to social and physical weaknesses. Economic vulnerability was notably high in Rawalpindi Cantonment (0.61), whereas Chacklala Cantonment showed comparatively lower overall vulnerability (0.363). The study reveals widespread social vulnerability and highlights the cyclical impact of flooding on low-income communities. The study concludes that targeted mitigation strategies including improved urban planning, enhanced drainage infrastructure, community-based early warning systems, and policies to direct growth away from floodplains are urgently needed to reduce vulnerability. The FVI framework offers a practical tool for policymakers to prioritize interventions in the most at-risk areas, supporting sustainable urban development and disaster risk reduction in rapidly growing cities like Rawalpindi.