Forecasting and Trend Analysis of Undergraduate Students' Dropout: A Case Study of Sindh Agriculture University, Tando Jam, Pakistan

Abstract

Student dropout from universities is a contemporary, complex, and global issue, driven primarily by financial constraints. Nevertheless, local-level trend analysis and forecasting of dropout rates are lacking. Knowing these trends is vital to understanding the problem's intensity and to developing proactive plans to address the challenges. Hence, the researchers studied dropout trends and forecasted future dropout drifts among undergraduate students, using secondary data from 2010-17 batches across various faculties of Sindh Agriculture University (SAU), Tando Jam, Pakistan. After descriptive statistics, moving averages, and Exponential Smoothing (ES) techniques were applied using MS Excel. Findings revealed significant variation across faculties, with the Faculty of Agricultural Engineering (43.52%) and the Institute of Food Science and Technology (43.30%) showing the highest dropout ratios. The dropout rate peaked in 2015 (42.68%) and weakened momentarily in 2016, which may be due to leniency in re-admission policies. Forecasting for 2018-2022 batches, representing possible variations if regular and timely interventions are not made on time. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and administrators to consider the dropout issue and strengthen student retention. The study also recommends a few related studies to identify the actual dropout factors among local/University students.