China’s Security Strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan: Protecting Belt and Road Interests amid Regional Instability

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic security approach of China in Afghanistan and Pakistan, its attempts to protect investments in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), in the face of a growing level of instability in the region. The resurgence of militancy, inter-country terrorism, and fragility in governance in Afghanistan due to the Taliban returning to power in 2021 has set complicated issues of China in terms of its regional involvement. The study utilizes qualitative, interpretivist research design in analyzing the security behavior of China by using interviews, focus group discussion, and policy documents to analyze the behavior in relation to the theoretical frameworks of Defensive Realism and Neo-Classical Realism. The conclusions made indicate that China pursues a reserved, defensive, and economically oriented approach whereby stability is sought by means of diplomatic intervention, economic interdependence, and a restricted security cooperation instead of active intervention. Although Pakistan is still the main partner of the Chinese, its internal unrest and Taliban dualism towards the transnational militancy interfere with the cooperation of regional security. This paper then finds that to protect BRI projects in a sustainable manner, there is a need to develop a Trilateral Security Coordination Mechanism, stronger intelligence sharing, and confidence building between China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. The study leads to the insight of the regional security position of China, as well as policy implications on enhancing economic-security agglomeration in unstable areas.