Economic Isolation vs. Regional Connectivity: Afghanistan’s Role in China BRI and Russia's Eurasian Strategy

Abstract

In today's global politics, Afghanistan is in a precarious position: despite its economic exclusion, political unrest, and international sanctions, it has tremendous potential to serve as a crucial center for connectivity across the region. This paper examines Afghanistan's developing position in Russia's Eurasian strategy and China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), placing its significance within the larger framework of geographic integration and major-power rivalries. The study uses a qualitative research approach and uses secondary data from regional think-tank studies, policy papers, official documents, and scholarly articles. The theoretical framework integrates theory of dependency to analyze Afghanistan's unbalanced position in these attempts, regionalism to analyze economic and institutional integration, and neorealism to evaluate the strategic competition of major powers. The results show that institutional shortcomings, safety concerns, and a lack of global acceptance hinder Afghanistan's involvement in connectivity initiatives like the CPEC extension or the Eurasian transit lanes. Yet, its geographic location and untapped resources render it a vital “swing state” for Eurasian unification. The study comes to the conclusion that Afghanistan's future will be determined by how its foreign commitment and domestic vulnerability interact, providing clues as to whether the nation will continue to be economically isolated or become a key component of regional connectedness.